Growing power of Muslim voters

There are lots of possible explanations for why Canada tilted away from Israel on the Gaza conflict this week by backing a UN resolution calling for a “sustained ceasefire.”

There’s even a theory that Washington gave Canada, Australia and New Zealand a quiet nod to shift their positions as a way of pressuring the Israeli government to restrain the bombing campaign that has killed so many Palestinian civilians.

But the Trudeau government surely didn’t need much encouragement to move in that direction, and it didn’t necessarily have to do with geopolitical calculations. You only have to look at changing demographics in this country and their far-reaching political implications.

To be specific: since the last time there was a major flare-up in the endless Israel-Palestine conflict, back in the late 2000s when Hamas took control of Gaza and Israel waged war against it, Canada’s Muslim population has grown remarkably both in numbers and in influence.

Any government — particularly a Liberal one that has benefited from Muslim votes since it was first elected in 2015 — would have to take note. And clearly, this one has. This can be touchy territory, so let’s specify a couple of things upfront.

There’s nothing wrong with any community, including Muslims, organizing to maximize their political impact. That’s as Canadian as butter tarts. Virtually every group has done it — from the English and Irish to francophone Quebecers, Ukrainians, Italians, Sikhs, you name it.

And ethnic voting doesn’t explain everything about this or any issue. You don’t have to be Muslim to be appalled at the death toll in Gaza, no more than you have to be Jewish to be sickened by the massacre of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7.

But in this case, there’s no ignoring the increase in Muslim voters. A few numbers: the 2001 census showed there were 579,000 Muslims in this country (or 1.95 per cent of the population). The most recent census, in 2021, put that number at 1.77 million (4.9 per cent).

That’s a dramatic rise. By contrast, Muslims are only an estimated 1.1 per cent of the U.S. population, meaning their relative demographic weight in Canada is almost five times as large.

Another relevant comparison: in 2001, Canada’s Jewish population was put at 330,000. The 2021 census measured it at 335,000 — virtually the same. So while the country’s Jewish population flatlined, its Muslim population tripled.

Canadian Muslims have become better organized and more influential as well. An organization called The Canadian-Muslim Vote (TCMV) was founded in 2015 precisely to inform and mobilize Muslim voters. Polls show they went overwhelmingly for the Liberals that year, after feeling targeted by the Harper Conservatives and their misguided “barbaric cultural practices” gambit.

In 2021, Canadians elected a record 12 Muslim MPs, all but one of them Liberals. Four served as ministers in the Trudeau government, including the current justice minister, Arif Virani.

It’s not only numbers. Muslim Canadians have become more prominent in many fields — business, law, medicine, journalism and the arts, in addition to politics. My former Star colleague, Haroon Siddiqui, wrote recently that Muslims in many western countries, very much including Canada, “are emerging as an integral part of the mainstream, despite or because of the heavy odds they’ve encountered.”

It should come as no surprise that Muslims are flexing those new muscles. During the current conflict Muslim MPs, including Liberals, spoke out in favour of a ceasefire before the government shifted its position. And a group representing Muslim donors to the Liberal party, called Network 100, publicly withdrew its support because the government had not heeded those calls for a ceasefire.

That’s all politics as usual, the only difference being that Muslims are relative newcomers to those circles. The Liberals are feeling the pressures most, partly because they’re in government and partly because their caucus includes both Jewish and Muslim MPs with strong feelings on Gaza.

But no party can ignore the new reality. Demographics, they say, are destiny. And right now they’re showing Muslim voters must be taken seriously.