Inside a victory that nearly wasn’t

Campaign insiders detail the at-times rocky battle that ultimately led to Smith’s win

From their headquarters at a nondescript building at the Calgary airport, the brain trust behind Danielle Smith’s election bid would watch the flights taking off and landing at YYC.

The running joke over the course of the past four weeks became that if things really started to nosedive for the United Conservatives, they could always hop on the next flight and get out of Dodge.

And there were moments. Smith and her UCP pulled out a win in Monday’s Alberta election after a tight, hard-fought campaign. Her win has set the stage for more showdowns with the federal government as the libertarian leader looks to push back on environmental policies she contends would devastate her province’s economy.

There were days during the rollercoaster campaign when it felt like it was all about to go off the rails. Candidates had to be disqualified, an ethics commissioner report found the party’s leader broke the Conflicts of Interest Act on the day of the election debate, and clips surfaced of Smith comments that offended even some of the people campaigning for her.

UCP insiders, speaking confidentially to discuss party deliberations, have pulled back the curtain for the Star on a campaign that would keep Smith in the role of Alberta’s premier — but that looked for a time like it would do anything but.

Going into the campaign, the UCP plan was to keep Smith, the former radio show host, away from reporters.

Despite her years in the media and political spotlight, Smith had not impressed with public speaking over the last seven months as party leader. Her first press conference as premier was when she called the unvaccinated “the most discriminated against” group she’d seen in her lifetime.

Her campaign knew this and in the beginning of the writ period, her time with reporters was limited. Senior advisers wanted her away from the cameras, where she’d be peppered with question from reporters, and so she was not holding press conferences daily. They also limited reporters to only one question with no followups.

Getting Smith to stick to the message was another challenge, people in the war room said.

In the mornings, there would be campaign calls with Smith and about 20 people, including some candidates considered trusted political operatives by Smith. There would be people responsible for areas like rapid response, communications and research.

After those calls, there would be another call with the tight inner circle around Smith, for sensitive discussions around things like whether to disqualify a candidate.

Some sources said it could be hard getting Smith to stay on what some operatives considered a winning issue. “Danielle Smith doesn’t particularly love talking about the economy,” said one. “It’s legitimately like pulling teeth.”

A week into the campaign, on May 8, a video from 2021 surfaced of Smith comparing vaccinated people to followers of Hitler and talking about not wearing a poppy because of politicians putting in public health restrictions.

Not long after, it emerged that candidate Jennifer Johnson had compared trans kids to feces in cookie dough.

The news cycle went into overdrive.

Smith had to apologize for her own comments and then a decision had to be made about Johnson.

Caucus got involved, said two warroom sources.

Another senior war-room source agreed with outside critics that the decision to kick Johnson out should she get elected, which came days after the comments surfaced, took too long. Once caucus got vocal, the campaign “snapped to attention,” they added.

The decision came May 18, the day of the election debate between Smith and NDP Leader Rachel Notley — a moment sources say turned the tides, if not of the election, at least of their morale.

The campaign had been ready for opposition research to be released on their candidates, and Smith. It was no secret she had held controversial positions.

But the magnitude of the comments Smith had made about Hitler and the poppy felt especially impactful to some.

One Edmonton-area UCP campaigner said they felt “a little bit personally offended” by Smith’s comments about vaccinated people being comparable to followers of Nazis.

Indeed, polls remained relatively stable throughout the campaign. Some showed the NDP with a slight lead, others favoured the UCP.

It’s unclear how much of an effect Smith’s comments ended up having, but at the time, they sent a shiver through a campaign hellbent on winning in Calgary.

Then came time for the May 18 debate. Not only would Smith have to defend her comments about Hitler and the poppy, she would also have to address an ethics commissioner report released just hours before the debate that found she’d breached the Conflicts of Interest Act in trying to assist a Calgary street preacher in his criminal proceedings.

The campaign had a heads-up that the ethics report was coming. It was accepted among some in the campaign that Smith knew she had made a mistake, but there was a feeling the language in the report was “over the top,” said a source.

Still, in prepping for the debate, the line was drawn up for Smith that it was a mistake she was looking to learn from.

The campaign held its breath as Smith took the stage, but she performed well, all the sources said. One insider likened the debate to a fourth-quarter comeback win in the Super Bowl.

One thing the debate helped address were questions about whether many candidates would want Smith campaigning with them in their ridings, particularly around Calgary and on the outskirts of Edmonton.

“A lot of people weren’t that crazy about wanting her in their riding,” said a war room source. “After the debate, let’s just say that the phone started ringing.”