Smith couldn’t swing right (too much)

The latest Alberta election has rendered the map of that province into a highly polarized territory, riven between Danielle Smith’s re-elected, but weaker United Conservatives and the strongest opposition ever with Rachel Notley’s New Democrats.

The obvious conclusion is that the centre has disappeared in Alberta and the next four years will be a tug of war between the hard right and the hard left.

But is that correct?

Eight years ago, many smart people were predicting that Canada was headed in that direction too, with a 2015 election that was supposed to be a fight between the tired Conservative government and a surging New Democratic opposition, with the middle-of-theroad Liberals headed to oblivion.

That’s not how it turned out, as it happened. The political centre in Canada is definitely being brushed by the forces of polarization and populism playing out to the south of this nation, but the Alberta election can also be seen as an ongoing struggle to find that political middle — and just how hard that is.

Smith did not campaign from the hard right and in fact had to do some work to keep her past extreme rhetoric — whether on vaccines or the convoy — from damaging her chances. Notley, meanwhile, worked similarly to persuade Albertans that she was not the farleft, free-spending alternative her rivals portrayed her as.

The vote may have produced a divided Alberta, but the campaign itself was a fight for the middle.

Ontarians have seen this movie. Premier Doug Ford came to office with a hard-right, populist reputation, balanced against a strong NDP opposition, with Liberals kicked to third place. A combination of factors over the past five years, including the pandemic, has turned Ford into more of a centrist, as eager to work with Justin Trudeau as he is to avoid the harsher conservatism of federal leader Pierre Poilievre.

Abacus Data was in the field polling in the days before the Alberta vote and predicted Smith’s UCP was headed for a win. Abacus CEO David Coletto said he’s wary of seeing Alberta’s election as any guide to where the centre now stands in Canadian politics.

“I don’t think there’s a firm, anchored centre in Canadian public opinion,” Coletto said. “Instead, I think the centre shifts depending on the issue, the context and the urgency of an issue.”

He points to the health-care debate as an example of a roving political centre, which “moves depending on whether Canadians are feeling optimistic or anxious about the economic environment. And so, I think it’s hard to identify a centre point.”

As Coletto saw it, “Albertans weren’t so much polarized around specific issues but on the general direction or outlook. Smith and Notley epitomized those choices. I think it was an election that challenged the very nature of what it means to be Albertan: New versus old Alberta; urban versus rural; modern versus traditional.”

While it would be a mistake to draw too many comparisons between Alberta politics and what’s happening on the federal stage, all the national parties will no doubt be reflecting on what it means to reach for the centre of the electorate, as Notley and Smith did in their own ways.

After all, Coletto notes, that’s where the majority of Canada lives. “I will say that most Canadians — the vast majority — are not dogmatic about most issues,” he said. “In all the years I’ve done public opinion research, I’ve rarely found an issue that most people distribute to ends of the spectrum. Most seek compromise and balance.”

Politics, as it’s played right now, isn’t configured to debate compromise and balance, however, so you saw federal Conservative and New Democrat leaders claiming their share of vindication in the Alberta result. Poilievre, who endorsed Smith in the campaign’s final days, called her victory a slap at the “woke” politics of the Liberals and NDP, while Jagmeet Singh said he was taking comfort in how Notley had gained seats in Monday’s vote.

Just this week, a thoughtful, longtime Conservative who knows the current leader well was telling me that Poilievre does not think there is just one political spectrum, and we should expect to see him play a long game with some hard-right edges and other policies more to the centre.

As Smith learned the hard way, Poilievre may want to keep some distance between his party and the more extreme views of the convoy and anti-vaxxer crowd.

Singh and Trudeau, on the other hand, will be trying to persuade Canadians that their working agreement represents the practical, progressive middle of the road.

Alberta’s election doesn’t represent a destiny of any sorts for national politics writ large, but it’s another warning against writing off the political centre in Canada. Political parties may be polarized, but the population isn’t — at least, not yet.