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Smith’s victory reveals political divide

‘This is the tale of two Albertas,’ one observer says

ALEX BOYD

If you squinted, it looked like many stories that had come before it: a conservative win in a traditionally conservative province.

But beneath Danielle Smith’s election victory Monday night were undercurrents that suggest the political landscape in Alberta is shifting, and that voters in a province known for backing the same conservative party for decades are now divided on ideological and geographical grounds — and even on some basic facts.

It was a stunning comeback for Smith, a politician with years of experience who has been dogged by controversy for almost as long. Yet while her party dominated in small towns and rural areas, it lost 15 seats, including significant ground in Calgary. That territory was taken up by Rachel Notley’s New Democrats, who turned all of Edmonton and a significant chunk of Calgary orange, before their momentum slammed headlong into the blue wall of right-wing support in rural areas.

In the end, the UCP was elected in 49 ridings (including one member who Smith said would not join caucus), to the NDP’s 38.

“This is the tale of two Albertas,” said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Calgary’s Mount Royal University.

Having two truly competitive parties is a new concept in the province, but in some ways, Albertans have bypassed regular political competition and cruised right into polarization, entrenching divisions on everything from political ideology to geography to vaccination.

Both parties had faced the same prospect of forming government while having seats predominantly in either urban or rural areas.

“I have been saying all along that we have a major governance problem, no matter what,” Bratt said. “It’s going to be very chaotic.”

The election was called for Smith after 11 p.m. local time and she took to the stage with a message for Albertans of all political stripes.

She pledged to work for everyone, to build a province for all. As she implored her supporters to laud Notley as a “loyal Albertan” who loved the province, they applauded. Of course, this was after the crowd had spent three hours booing any mention of the rival leader or her candidates.

Observers say if Smith does intend to speak to all Albertans, she will have her work cut out for her in bridging the political divide in the province — amid some fears that Alberta could fully descend into U.S.-style polarization.

“She’s going to have to reach out to folks who didn’t vote for her, to somehow make up for some of the things she said before, and it’s going be tough,” said political scientist Lori Williams, also of Mount Royal.

In what might be a hint at Smith’s approach to bipartisan co-operation, she told an Edmonton radio station Tuesday that in order to understand the capital city, a “vitally important” area that voted in exclusively NDP MLAs, she will be consulting a panel of unelected former UCP representatives.

Smith, a self-described libertarian who hosted a popular radio show, has taken the province’s dominant conservative party further to the right than ever before, pushing back on most climate-change measures or green energy initiatives, while toying with ideas such as forcing drug users into treatment and opening up the Rocky Mountains to coal mining, raising the eyebrows of even some establishment conservatives in this province.

Some of ethical failures and personal viewpoints she’s expressed have also alienated many in the province, from breaking the Conflicts of Interest Act by speaking to the justice minister about a homophobic street preacher facing charges, to calling the unvaccinated the “most discriminated against” group she’s seen in her lifetime.

While the win was a big comeback for Smith, it wasn’t a landslide, Williams says.

Stereotypes aside, three out of four Albertans live in a city or major centre, and Smith’s rural-focused government will have to meet their needs, too — not least in Calgary, a city known more for cowboy hats and Stampede breakfasts, but which is the fastest-growing centre in the Prairies and the third-most diverse in the country.

Within her own party, which has never quite seemed as united as its name would suggest, Smith will also face pressure from the rightwing members who were angered by COVID health restrictions and helped topple Jason Kenney, supporting Smith in his place. Thirdparty advertiser Take Back Alberta, which opposed Kenney and endorsed a small crowd of freedom-focused candidates, is increasingly working to influence the UCP.

Smith’s critics fear that she has struck a Faustian bargain of sorts with certain fringe elements who will push her further from the mainstream — or, once spurned, attempt to undermine her.

One of the undercurrents here is also that some traditionally conservative voters in Alberta have found the party moving away from them.

“I think Albertans aren’t used to having a two-party competitive system, because for decades we had one big party that had a very big tent, and a lot of people from a lot of different political backgrounds could fit comfortably into the Progressive Conservative tent,” said Dave Cournoyer, a longtime political writer who runs a blog about Alberta politics called Daveberta.

While the province has always had a libertarian streak, Williams argues that social media and anger around COVID has further emboldened these ideas, and driven a further wedge in the province.

Recent polling data suggested the ideological divide in Alberta is increasingly correlated with beliefs in vaccines and even climate change. National pollster EKOS asked 1,741 people in Alberta about their vaccination status and belief in ideas such as climate change, and found those who were unvaccinated or subscribed to false beliefs about contentious topics were more likely to support Smith.

Bratt, the political scientist, is clear about the stakes about what’s going on here: “Polarization doesn’t mean a different opinion,” he said. “Polarization is if I believe that climate change is really important and you don’t believe climate change exists.”

Having two competitive political parties is arguably a boon for democracy in Alberta, but it’s taken some adjustment, Cournoyer says. The challenge now, he adds, is to make sure the province doesn’t descend into U.S.-style polarization, where the system risks becoming deadlocked between two ideologically opposed camps.

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2023-05-31T07:00:00.0000000Z

2023-05-31T07:00:00.0000000Z

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