Dubas taking stock for stretch drive

The Maple Leafs have just10 games before the NHL’s trade deadline. They loom as a critical three-plus weeks for an organization enjoying another dominant regular season while bracing for a massive test in the playoffs.

Peel back the layers and it’s uncanny how closely this year’s performance mirrors where they were at a year ago. The Leafs entered their bye week with 70 points, two behind last year’s total through the same number of games. The only thing to be determined is whether a first-round series with the Lightning will start in Toronto or Tampa.

There is also the question of how general manager Kyle Dubas will approach the trade deadline with so much hinging on what happens in April.

His own job appears to be at stake this season with a contract due to expire on June 30. Several of his players are impending free agents as well.

Dubas hasn’t traditionally believed in the idea of going all-in on because of how much randomness is at play in the sport. He has focused on trying to give the Leafs as many chances to win as possible, and he has watched them lose seven straight games where they had an opportunity to advance out of a playoff series.

There are some indications that this year’s group may be more capable of grinding out a tight game than the iterations before it. The Leafs have cut down significantly on shots and goals against this season, perhaps sacrificing some of their own offensive production in the process. That’s the biggest positive that jumps out when comparing their performance through 52 games.

With the stretch drive and March 3 trade deadline approaching, here’s what we’ve learned about the 2022-23 Leafs:

They don’t have one obvious glaring need. Getting a clear read on Dubas’s deadline approach has been difficult. The Leafs are gauging the market on both forwards and defencemen, being linked to everyone from Ryan O’Reilly to Timo Meier to Jake McCabe.

What this appears to signal is that they’re not pursuing any one specific player or fit. They’re shopping for upgrades.

One league source strongly suggested last week that Toronto’s main focus is on improving a blue line weakened by Jake Muzzin’s absence. That ran counter to the prevailing industry thought that the team was prioritizing a forward that could bolster the top end of the lineup.

They aren’t shopping with a full wallet. Like many multi-year contenders, the Leafs are running thin on assets after consistently trading futures to address today’s needs.

That’s especially true when you remove the possibility of them parting with a first-round pick or top prospect Matthew Knies for a rental at this deadline. The Leafs aren’t believed to be interested in entertaining those thoughts.

So, unless they can swing a deal for a player with term remaining on his contract, they are basically shopping with third-, fifth- and sixthround picks in 2023 and whatever they have in 2024: a second, fourth, fifth, sixth and two sevenths. Perhaps someone will be interested in 2025 draft picks as well.

The Leafs could look to move on from a pending unrestricted free agent, like Alex Kerfoot or Justin Holl, although there may be limited value in doing so unless there is a clear upgrade coming back.

So, what’s behind the improved defensive play? Sheldon Keefe attributes it to mindset. The head coach thought that was especially true earlier in the season when his team ripped through November despite weathering a crazy run of injuries to their top defencemen.

“(That) really got everybody’s attention in terms of the details and the necessity to stay focused on really playing a great team game to help insulate our defence,” Keefe said recently.

They also added some defensiveminded forwards, signing Zach Aston-Reese and Calle Järnkrok before the season and graduating Pontus Holmberg from the American Hockey League. That has changed the dynamic in a lineup that doesn’t seem to get involved in as many run-and-gun games as it once did. It could all come down to goaltending. Dubas made a bold call last summer to completely turn over his goaltending department, acquiring the oft-injured Matt Murray from Ottawa while signing Ilya Samsonov after the Washington Capitals chose not to extend him a qualifying offer. Neither was a sure thing.

Even as well as it’s worked out this season — the Leafs entered Tuesday 14th in the league with a .909 team save percentage — neither still is.

Murray suffered an ankle injury before the all-star break. Couple that with the adductor issue he dealt with in October and he’s only made 19 appearances so far. Samsonov had wrestled control of the crease before Murray’s latest setback, but he has limited post-season experience on his resumé.

How one or both of those men perform will have a huge bearing on what happens next, especially with another playoff series against Andrei Vasilevskiy looming a couple of months down the road.