This is just the first deadline

Regardless of what happens or doesn’t happen by Thursday, change is coming to this team

The NBA trade deadline is real, in the sense that time is real, and in the sense that deadlines spur action. It’s also real that the Raptors are fielding enough calls to melt cellphones, and fans can and will lose their minds because vicechairman Masai Ujiri pulls star forward Pascal Siakam aside in view of the media. Ujiri speaks regularly to his players but, right now, everything is freighted with potential meaning.

And in fairness, any of it might come true. This has been true for weeks: It is possible Toronto will move anybody but Scottie Barnes and the Raptor, and really they might at least listen on the Raptor, depending on the value involved. He’s great, but this is a transitory time.

Unless it’s not, yet, because there are two trade deadlines for Toronto. Everyone can see this is a mismatched group, and whether it’s the lack of perimeter shooting, no real centre, the coaching fit, defensible but contradictory agendas, or simply an exhaustion of the style, these Raptors are stranded in the middle of nowhere. So, yes, they are taking calls on O.G. Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, Siakam, and to a far lesser degree everybody else. Those are the big-ticket items, and in a league with few sellers, the potential return could be remarkable.

And while you can construct all the trades in the world, one key here is what the Raptors want. It’s not to be the Lakers or Mavericks or the Nets — all three are trying like hell to maximize superstars, even if the superstars are 38, 23, and 34, respectively.

The Lakers reportedly threw their two first-round picks in 2027 and 2029 at the Nets for Kyrie Irving, and it didn’t work because Brooklyn and the Lakers are, fundamentally, the same team. The Mavericks are too, so they decided to trade for the most dangerous franchise-killer in the game.

The Raptors could likely have done something with Irving. They passed. Short-term gratification doesn’t make sense for Toronto, which is why the Raptors aren’t inquiring about Zach LaVine, or Bradley Beal, or Damian Lillard. At least Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton is only 24.

Similarly, the Raptors aren’t resetting the clock to late in the decade, even if Barnes is only 21 years old. The NBA moves fast. Toronto’s Kawhi Leonard title was four years ago. Four years before that Kevin Durant was in Oklahoma City, and Russell Westbrook too. The Raptors aren’t trying to merely stockpile draft picks unless they can plausibly turn those draft picks into Scottie Barnes’ co-stars, one way or another.

No, everything you know about this organization and how it works is that the Raptors are aiming for contention within about four or five years, and sooner if possible. Barnes is a guy. He’s had a tricky season, and it hasn’t been a straight line yet. But look at what he has done in crunch time this season; look at how he drove straight at Grizzlies shot-blocker Jaren Jackson Jr., who is inhaling NBA offences this year, and had the strength and timing to create space for a game-winner in Memphis the other day. That moment was the only good part of what was a regrettable win.

The Raptors want to build around Barnes, but fast, which only mildly simplifies their decision tree. The Nets are trying to refashion around Durant, but if Durant decides he wants out again the Raptors will revisit that conversation, which they checked in on last summer. But the odds are pretty long that Durant suddenly hits the market before Thursday afternoon, so that means two more Toronto decisions: either you want to preserve your assets for a superstar trade, or you want different assets for a superstar trade. So maybe that’s where draft picks come in.

But this isn’t a patch job. It’s architecture, and it’s made more complex by the fact that Toronto doesn’t have to sell. All this frenzy, all the smoke, all the very real conversations, and they don’t need to untangle this group and tank, because the Raptors started Tuesday with the seventh-worst record in the NBA, and the summer awaits. My esteemed colleague Dave Feschuk made a compelling argument that the Raptors should sell while they are at the centre of things, and the thing is, it’s true. The market for Anunoby in particular sounds potentially rich. There aren’t many sellers. The trade talks are going through Toronto. This could be a moment for leverage.

It’s just that the summer could, too, because then you won’t just be choosing from Phoenix, Memphis, Brooklyn, New Orleans, and whomever else. And maybe Durant is available then, and he is the rare star worth spending on at nearly 35 years old. It’s quite likely the Raptors are telling teams that they’re more likely not to make a deal right now. How better to raise the price?

Masai Ujiri and his front office are weighing all of this, every moment, knowing the franchise will be reshaped by what they do. This team is going to change. Thursday’s just the first deadline to do it.