Four key players, will they stay or will they go?

It will be an explosive NBA trade deadline around these parts or it will be a dud that disappoints the thousands expecting the Raptors to do something big between now and Thursday afternoon.

“There is so much noise it’s ridiculous and you can’t even pay attention to any of it,” Toronto coach Nick Nurse told a larger-than-usual post-practice media horde Tuesday.

Here is a look at four key Raptors and why they might not be with the team for Friday’s home game against Utah. Or why they will.

O.G. Anunoby

He will be traded because … He’s 25 years old, has a manageable contract — $18 million (U.S.) per year — that runs through the end of the 2023-24 season, and is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He could help any number of contenders, including Memphis and New Orleans. He won’t be traded because … The Raptors have a heavy investment in him and a great affinity for him. If they are looking a couple of years into the future, why wouldn’t they want to keep him around as a core piece. His future … He could bring a big return — a player or two and perhaps a couple of draft picks — so let’s say there’s a 65-per-cent chance he gets moved.

Fred VanVleet

He will be traded because … A veteran point guard, a former all-star, an NBA champion and someone whose shooting stroke has returned at precisely the right time has tremendous value. Both Los Angeles teams could use him and, if the Raptors are worried about the cost of re-signing him in the summer, getting something for him in return is important.

He won’t be traded because … It will signal an absolute teardown of the current Raptors structure and that has never been Ujiri’s way of operating. Besides, the Lakers and Clippers don’t have a ton of assets to offer. Also, who would play point for the rest of this season? His future … A bit cloudy but he likes it in Toronto and he’s the team’s undisputed leader. There’s an 85 per cent chance he’s in a Raptors uniform Friday night.

Gary Trent Jr.

He will be traded because … Many teams can use a proven scorer for a last push in the regular season. As an impending free agent, Trent is the Raptor most likely to chase big money in the summer, money Toronto may not want to pay for someone they see as a sixth man to do all the scoring off the bench. If you’re looking to build a championship contender known for its defence, he’s not a top choice.

He won’t be traded because … The Raptors don’t have enough shooting or half-court scoring as it is. Maybe the expected summer riches won’t be there for him and Toronto can get a financial break.

His future … The return might not be as great as it would be from trading others but if there’s a roster tweak to be made, this is the move. Let’s say there’s a 75 per cent chance he’s on another team Thursday night.

Pascal Siakam

He will be traded because … Ujiri and Webster want to start almost totally over and figure turning a two-time all-NBA forward into prospects and draft picks makes the most sense. It would be a signal that Toronto’s tearing it down to the wood, even if that’s never been the way management has operated. But if a contender wants to overpay? Stranger things have happened.

He won’t be traded because … He’s 29 years old and having a great season, and he may be entering the prime of his career. He’s someone to build around, not cast adrift. His future … Never say never. There’s a five per cent chance an overwhelming offer comes Toronto’s way and he leaves.

Those are our odds. If you are predicting which, if any, of these players will be moved, heed these words from someone who knows Ujiri well: “No one knows what Masai is going to do until Masai does it.”