Glimpses of hope in dark times

It’s a big, bad, dangerous world out there, but there are flickers of light in the darkness. And right now the light is shining brighter in at least three areas where autocrats are being challenged.

First and most obviously, Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s latest moves show he’s fully aware of what kind of punishment the Russian army is taking as the war enters its eighth month.

U.S. officials estimate Russia has suffered at least 80,000 dead and wounded in what Putin still insists is just a “special military operation.” So he’s doubling down. He’s mobilizing 300,000 reservists, staging fake referendums to rubberstamp his plan to annex more Ukrainian territory, and ramping up the nuclear threats.

The result is unprecedented protests inside Russia. Thousands have been arrested and many more are fleeing the country to avoid being fed into the meat grinder of a pointless war. Putin’s allies in China and India can smell the stink of failure on him and are backing away as quick as they can.

All this vindicates the decision by western countries, including Canada, to rush military aid to Ukraine. It certainly could have gone the other way. Given Europe’s dependence on Russian energy it would have been no surprise if NATO’s European wing had sat on its hands. Fortunately, the Ukrainians fought back and the West discovered it has a spine after all.

But Putin’s attempts at blackmail are having an effect. The prospect of nuclear conflict is so appalling that calls are mounting for the Ukrainians to be “reasonable” and agree to trade land for peace.

Eventually some deal will be reached. But the Ukrainians have momentum on their side at this point, and Putin is weaker than ever. Now isn’t the time to panic and pressure them into accepting Russian gains, even if that was possible. Concern, not fear, is the right response to Putin’s threats.

Second, Iran, where women are leading a revolt against the sclerotic regime of ayatollahs and autocrats.

As is now well-known, the movement was sparked by the death of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini. She was arrested two weeks ago by Iran’s notorious “morality police” for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly — exposing a bit of hair, perhaps — and three days later she was dead. All signs point to her being beaten to death while in custody.

Protests against Amini’s death have spread across Iran. Women have taken the lead, burning their hijabs to protest the laws that force them to cover their hair, dress “modestly,” and generally take a back seat to men in the Islamic Republic. Authorities are cracking down on the demonstrations and dozens of protesters have been killed.

It’s clear the protests are about more than the hijab laws at this point. They’ve turned into an uprising aimed more broadly at a government that many Iranians, especially younger people, find stifling.

The courage of the women and men who have been in the streets night after night is inspiring, and countries like Canada should do whatever they can to support their movement. But we shouldn’t exaggerate the impact of their actions. Iran’s government has faced down bigger protests before, and it may well do the same this time.

It’s also important to keep in mind what the protests are about. Iranian women don’t want to be ordered to wear the hijab, but they aren’t trying to stop anyone who wants to wear it from doing so. It’s pretty basic: respect women’s choices in these matters, whether you’re in Iran or, say, Quebec.

Finally, Canada-China relations. The Trudeau government has named a new ambassador to China, veteran diplomat Jennifer May, and given her explicit instructions to stand up for “democratic values, human rights, and the rule of law.” This after two previous ambassadors who were more focused on making nice with Beijing, no matter what.

We saw how the “softly softly” approach worked as China abused our citizens and openly dissed our government. It’s high time to stand up and speak out.