Canadian winning in Paris seems like a stretch

It says something about the growth of Canada into a leading tennis nation that even heading into a French Open absolutely deluged with international intrigue, Canadians are still very much in the conversation.

Bibi, Félix. Shapo. Leylah. These are all names that slip quickly off the tongue for most avid watchers as the second major of the season gets set to commence. Never has Canadian tennis been this deep in extraordinary young talent.

The sport is roiling in controversy over Wimbledon, the next major, shunning Russian and Belarusian players in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The French Open declined to follow suit, and everyone’s got an opinion. But when the discussion turns solely to the sport and possible favourites on the red dirt of Roland Garros over the next two weeks, 21year-old Bianca Andreescu, 21year-old Félix Auger-Aliassime, 23year-old Denis Shapovalov and 19year-old Leylah Fernandez are featured prominently.

But are any of them actually ready to win in Paris?

Auger-Aliassime is ranked No. 9 in the world. Andreescu has won a major. Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov were quarterfinalists at this year’s Australian Open. Fernandez was a finalist at the U.S. Open in September. The raw talent is surely there.

Right now, part of the task is ignoring all the pre-tournament white noise and focusing on the job — perhaps easier said than done.

On the men’s side, defending champion Novak Djokovic is back after being deported from Australian on the eve of the Aussie Open because of problems related to his refusal to be vaccinated against COVID-19. France recently dropped almost all COVID-related restrictions, however, so Djokovic is free to go in search of his 21st major victory.

Auger-Aliassime, beaten by Djokovic in Rome earlier this month, could stand in the Serbian superstar’s way in the third round. But the bigger obstacle for Djokovic could be the great Rafael Nadal, looking for his 14th French Open title. In his last clay competition in Rome, Nadal was badly hindered by a foot injury. He lost to Shapovalov, but in such a way that Nadal’s physical limitations were seen as the reason. Nadal is 105-3 at Roland Garros, including a loss in the semis to Djokovic last year.

While Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov, No. 15 in the world, remain among the brightest stars in the game, more and more observers are looking to 19-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz as the young gun closest to winning a major championship. Alcaraz could make the NextGen stars seem like yesterday’s men if he can live up to the hype at Roland Garros, after already winning four tournaments this season.

On the women’s side, former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka returns to Paris 12 months after quitting the tournament over her refusal to participate in post-match press conferences for mental health reasons. After her opening win last year, Osaka was fined $15,000 (U.S.) and threatened with heavier penalties if she did not toe the line. Her response? She left France, and has since seen her world ranking tumble to No. 38 as she searches for ways to balance her mental health and tennis aspirations.

“For the most part, I think I’m OK,” she said Friday. “I’m not going to lie. When I first came here, I was very worried ... but I think everyone has been really positive for the most part.”

Osaka’s best result this season has been a run to the final in Miami, where she lost to Iga Swiatek. Then again, everyone loses to Swiatek these days. She is carrying a 28match winning streak into the French Open, the tournament she won in 2020.

Her most recent title was at the Italian Open, which included surviving a tough challenge from Andreescu — well, at least in the first set. Based on that, the talented but oft-injured Canadian looked to be very much an obstacle for the 20year-old Swiatek, now ranked No. 1 in the world. Swiatek won it a tiebreak, then swept the Canadian off the court in the second.

A rematch in Paris would have to be in the final, as they are in opposite halves of the draw. There’s doubt that Andreescu has the physical stamina to last that long after missing much of the past year, but this is a chance to prove her durability.

Andreescu seems more likely to run into Fernandez in the third round if both Canadians can get that far. Fernandez starts Sunday against French veteran Kristina Mladenovic as the Canadian teenager — just 12-7 this season — searches for the magic than made her the left-handed darling of Flushing Meadows last fall.

Rebecca Marino, meanwhile, is the other Canadian singles player to qualify for the main draw on the women’s side. Her first-round match will be against 18-year-old Coco Gauff, a player deemed to have the same massive potential as Alcaraz just two years ago.

So everywhere you turn in Paris on the eve of the French Open, there is intrigue. Canada’s best are right in the thick of it.