Jays payroll set to rise again but Rogers isn’t in this to lose

The Blue Jays’ payroll has increased each of the last two years, and despite a pandemic that wreaked havoc on the franchise’s finances, it appears to be going up again in 2022.

Team president Mark Shapiro held his year-end media availability on Monday afternoon. He hinted his club remains on track to make another round of investments to augment a young core and build on a 91-win season that resulted in just missing the post-season.

Owner Rogers Communications takes a lot of flak around these parts, and for good reason. Rogers arguably is the wealthiest owner in baseball, with pockets deep enough to roll out a team with the league’s most expensive payroll, yet historically has rarely acted like it.

Among MLB cities, only New York and Los Angeles are larger, and both share teams while the Jays have an entire country to themselves. They also possess the added benefit of owning their home ballpark and the network that airs their games. There’s a lot working in the Jays’ favour and yet, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they’ve never ranked higher than eighth in payroll, and they’ve only been in the top 10 six times since the start of the century.

The obvious downside to being run by a faceless entity is that there isn’t one person the front office can turn to for approval. Instead of playing on the emotions of an individual, all major financial decisions must be approved by a board, which includes a group of people who know a lot more about telecommunications than sports. All asks must be made as part of an in-depth plan that forecasts expenses vs. revenue and includes projections for multiple years down the road.

The upside of being owned by a conglomerate is that, to date, the Jays have been mostly immune to the recent economic downturn. An almost twoyear absence from the Rogers Centre didn’t derail Shapiro’s previously approved plan. When the front office sits down with the Rogers board of governors some time next month, no surprises are expected.

This is the type of autonomy Shapiro envisioned when he agreed to leave Cleveland for Toronto following the 2015 season. He put the wheels in motion for an ambitious rebuild, with plans in place to grow the payroll alongside the young core. Unlike Alex Anthopoulos prior to the 2013 season, the moves wouldn’t be made all at once, but would instead come in waves.

Two years ago, that investment began by handing a fouryear deal to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Last winter, it involved signing George Springer to a six-year, $150-million (U.S.) contract while making a series of shortterm investments in Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien and others. This off-season, it’s set to continue again.

“Every indication I’ve received … leads me to believe that we will stay on plan and the payroll will continue to rise, despite the fact that we’re lagging behind a bit in revenues due to uncontrollable circumstances,” Shapiro said, referring to next month’s financial summit with ownership.

Assuming things go as expected during Shapiro’s presentation to the board, Rogers deserves credit for staying on course.

It would have been easy to look at this year’s books, which only included partial ticket sales, and conclude that the lost revenue from the last two years would have to be made up in other ways, namely by reneging on previous promises about payroll.

Instead, Rogers appears to be buying what Shapiro is selling, which is the belief that the easiest path to economic recovery is by fielding a winning team that fans are eager to support.

Making the post-season the next couple of years wouldn’t necessarily offset the previous dip in revenue, but it sure would help.

The issue is that support from ownership comes with an expiry date, as these things always do. The long-term plan Rogers previously approved was built on the belief that revenues would increase at the same rate as expenses, if not better. To date, that hasn’t happened.

Last year, fans weren’t allowed to buy tickets at all. This year, a limited number were permitted to attend each game. Next season, all bets are off.

Even if pandemic restrictions aren’t in place when the season begins in April, there might be hesitancy from fans to come out in droves like they did before COVID-19, something teams in the National Hockey League have already noticed.

So, while the Jays have a bit of clarity on what next year’s resources will look like, and a general template for the seasons that follow, it’s entirely possible that Rogers will eventually look at this situation and decide cuts, not investments, are required.

That’s another reason why the Jays should be expected to take a cautious approach this off-season to long-term deals. Lots of money will be spent on next year’s payroll, potentially $160 million or more, but to maintain flexibility for the future, some restraint will be required as well.

“What’s not happened on plan is that our revenues would grow along with payroll,” Shapiro said. “It’s been what has happened here historically. As the team achieves a level of championship expectations, the number of fans that have come out has increased correspondingly and that has supported payroll.

“So, I think what we’ve seen is an incredible amount of trust and belief in the plan, and support from ownership that has been unprecedented, despite the fact that we’re still suffering from the pandemic and its impact on our revenues.”

The Jays appear to be in a good spot financially, despite the drop in revenue. The only way they’re guaranteed to stay that way is by becoming a perennial contender.

If the wins come in droves, the fans will too. If the losses start piling up instead, Rogers will inevitably cut the cord on these annual investments.