Hamilton measures seen as keeping Delta at bay

HAMILTON—The worst of the fourth COVID wave appears to have been contained in Hamilton through public health measures and vaccination.

“We are cautiously optimistic that the fourth wave has been averted,” said the city’s medical officer of health, Dr. Elizabeth Richardson. “However, COVID-19 is unlikely to disappear this year.”

As Premier Doug Ford said he will announce the province’s reopening plans this week, Hamilton public health used local forecasting to show the need to continue some public health measures that are working to keep the aggressive Delta variant at bay this fall.

“If public health measures are reduced before we boost vaccination levels further, cases could quickly increase,” epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the city’s board of health Monday.

“We anticipate an increased risk in November and December as Hamiltonians move indoors and reopening continues.”

Scarsin Forecasting predicts masking, physical distancing, limiting contacts and travelling less can prevent 850 COVID cases in Hamilton between now and the end of December.

The modelling demonstrates how these public health measures can make the difference between Hamilton maintaining fewer than 30 average new COVID cases a day compared to climbing back up to 50 or going as high as 100 from now until the end of the year.

“The fourth wave appears to have receded with continued public health measures and increased vaccination levels,” said Sanderson. “As Hamiltonians continue to get vaccinated, continued public health measures can help prevent increased transmission in November.”

But even moderate decreases in the number of residents sticking to public health measures can mean the difference between the best- and worstcase scenarios.

The best-case scenario, in which COVID hospital admissions are kept to one or two a day between now and the end of December, is built on 70 per cent of Hamiltonians wearing masks and 40 per cent maintaining physical distance.

The worst-case scenario, with as many as four COVID patients admitted to hospital daily, sees masking decrease gradually to 60 per cent and physical distancing to 25 per cent.

“Hamilton’s fourth wave may have been contained,” said Sanderson. “The forecast predicts that wave four has peaked in Hamilton.”

The peak appears to have been at the end of August when daily average cases hit 80 a day and the weekly rate per 100,000 population was 94. It was down to 23 average cases a day on Oct. 16 and a rate of 27.