Toronto-area ridings show Liberals sweeping broad area

Vote-rich region closely watched as a bellwether for national results

A constellation of key suburbs around Toronto delivered wins to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals on Monday.

First declared was Brampton East, with Liberal Maninder Sidhu confirmed the victor around 10:30 p.m.

Then came Mississauga Centre, where incumbent Omar Alghabra secured the seat minutes later. Brampton West went to Liberal Kamal Khera, and shortly after, Brampton South to Liberal Sonia Sidhu.

Though polls were still being counted at print deadline across the critical 905 region — filled with populous suburbs with a propensity to swing between blue and red — early results showed the Liberals sweeping the broad area. The Star forecast a win for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party nationally around 10:30 p.m.

The 905 region was being closely watched on Monday, as a usual bellwether for the national results.

“You’re probably looking at about nearly 10 per cent of the seats nation wide that are in that belt,” Peter Graefe, who teaches politics at McMaster University, said of the 905 region’s place in the federal vote. “They’re always in play, because the people who are living there are willing to change their minds.”

Toronto, with a few exceptions, has long been seen as safe Liberal territory. On Monday night, the first declared seat in the city went to Liberal incumbent Gary Anandasangaree in Scarborough Rouge Park. As of print deadline, the rest of the city was leaning or declared Liberal.

But unlike the city proper, the ridings around Toronto have bounced between parties, with areas like Mississauga and Brampton powering Stephen Harper’s Conservatives into a majority in 2011, then shifting gears to hand a majority to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2015.

Though the Liberals’ wings were clipped in 2019, they kept a firm grasp on Toronto and its surrounding areas, while swinging former Conservative ridings like Milton, which incumbent Liberal Adam van Koeverden held onto Monday over Conservative Nadeem Akbar.

Mississauga and Brampton were walls of red to the city’s west in 2019, and to the east, the Liberals were victorious in the likes of Whitby and Ajax.

Once you hit Oshawa, the Conservatives saw more wins — including in Erin O’Toole’s home riding of Durham. Early results from Monday night took a similar shape, with O’Toole once again declared the winner of his home riding, and Oshawa also going Conservative.

The Tories’ inability to make inroads in key Ontario ridings in 2019 was a dagger in former leader Andrew Scheer’s campaign. This time, with the Erin O’Toole camp eyeing areas like York Region, hopes ran high early. Polling indicated growing support for the Tories in some GTA ridings.

But later, senior Conservative sources started worrying about an “enthusiasm gap” among the party faithful — particularly in the 905 seats where they expected a tight race. One source worried supporters had gotten too optimistic after seeing the sunny forecasts.

The Liberals flipped a pair of Conservative seats in the area, with Liberal Paul Chiang winning Markham-Unionville from Bob Saroya, and Liberal Leah Taylor Roy overtaking Conservative Leona Alleslev in their second head-to-head for Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill. Alleslev was first elected to represent the riding as a Liberal in 2015, but later crossed the floor to the Tory camp, and was re-elected in 2019.

In King-Vaughan, Liberal incumbent Deb Schulte was again up against Conservative Anna Roberts. In 2019, Schulte won the seat by just 1.8 per cent. With 14 poll of 145 in the riding reporting at 11:28 p.m., no winner was yet declared, but Schulte was in the lead.

Then there was the People’s Party. Experts like Graefe and Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor, cautioned against assuming where, or if, PPC voters cast their ballots in previous elections.

But Conservative sources worried about whether Maxime Bernier’s fledgling party could take votes in ridings where Tories were narrowly elected in 2019, or where they’d hoped to flip seats this time around.

In the riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore, where the Liberals were ahead of the Tories by 826 votes as of press time, the People’s Party had so far picked up 808 votes.

Alison Smith, a political expert from the University of Toronto, said while other areas in Canada, like the Vancouver suburbs, had a similar propensity to change colours, she saw the 905 as critical due to its contests “between the parties that historically have been competing to govern.”

“Parties can’t form government with the 905 alone,” Smith cautioned. But it was an indicator of when the tides were shifting. “I think because of the competition between the Liberals and Conservatives particularly, it is seen as a key region when seeking to form government.”