Cy Young race just got tighter

Ray stumbles in Tampa, missing a chance to pull away from Cole

ST. PETERSBURG, FLA.—Robbie Ray has emerged as the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young Award but when presented with a chance Monday night to slam the door on rival Gerrit Cole, the 29year-old instead left it open just a smidge.

Ray, who has been enjoying one of the best seasons by a Blue Jays pitcher in franchise history, appears to have hit a stumbling block in the final weeks of the year. After tossing at least five innings in all but two of his first 27 starts, Ray has failed to hit that marker in two of his last three.

On a night when Ray’s velocity was slightly down, the Tampa Bay Rays put him through the wringer. They worked a lot of deep counts and despite going scoreless through the first four innings, their lengthy at-bats eventually took a toll in a three-run fifth en route to a 6-4 Jays loss at Tropicana Field.

Ray was charged with three runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out an uncharacteristically low five batters over 42⁄3 innings. That snapped a streak of seven starts with at least eight strikeouts, which tied Roger Clemens for the most in Jays history, while Ray’s ERA jumped from 2.64 to 2.72. During a game he needed swing and miss to escape jams, the put-out pitch just wasn’t there.

This was a missed opportunity by Ray to separate himself from Cole in the competitive battle to be named the AL’s top pitcher. The two aces had been locked into a close race with their stats almost carbon copies of each other until Cole had his worst outing of the season by allowing seven runs over 52⁄3 innings in Sunday’s loss to Cleveland.

Ray still holds the lead in most of the major stats, but after Monday’s outing the gap has narrowed once again. He has the edge in ERA (2.72 vs. 3.03), innings (182 vs. 169 1⁄3 ), strikeouts (238 vs. 231) and opponents’ batting average (.212 vs. .218). The current leader is clear, but each category is close enough to see some additional movement before the end of the year.

Home runs, one of Ray’s only weak spots, were his Achilles heel again against Tampa Bay. The Tennessee native was successfully grinding through his start, doing just enough to escape each inning, until the baserunners and a high pitch count caught up with him in the fifth.

With runners on first and second, Rays leadoff hitter Yandy Diaz smacked a threerun shot to left for his 12th of the season. That offset a pair of solo shots hit earlier in the game by Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel while leaving Ray on the hook for the loss. Tampa Bay then broke the game open with a run in every inning from the sixth to the eighth against the Jays’ bullpen. Marcus Semien added his 41st home run of the year, a two-run shot in the ninth, before the Jays stranded the tying run at second to end the game.

Diaz’s go-ahead homer came on a 93.4 mph fastball from Ray, which is a lower velocity than he normally throws. The eight-year veteran entered Monday’s outing averaging 94.9 mph on his four-seamer, a number that dropped to 93.7 vs. Tampa Bay. Whether that’s a sign of fatigue or just an off-night from one of the league’s top pitchers will be determined during his next outing.

As far as rough outings go, this one was still pretty good. Ray didn’t let the game get completely out of control like Cole did vs. Cleveland and he still hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July 21 vs. Boston. More concerning is that there have been just four starts in which Ray failed to go at least five innings and two of them have come within a span of 10 days.

That’s not the strong finish the Jays are hoping to get from the obvious choice to be named their starter for the wild card game, if they manage to get there. Still, considering Ray’s season has been almost perfect to date, some regression should be expected and the Jays will have to hope this proves to be a small blip in an otherwise spectacular campaign.

If the vote for the AL Cy Young Award was held today, Ray likely comes out on top. But with the numbers this close and at least two outings to go, the subpar performance against the Rays does provide Cole with a couple opportunities to even the playing field.

“The arm is there, the work ethic, when he signed back, I was one of the happiest guys because I knew he was going to do well,” Jays manager Charlie Montoyo said when asked about the Cy Young race a couple hours before Monday night’s game. “He has been outstanding. Let’s not forget that he has pitched in three different ballparks too. I know I’m biased, but he should be a good candidate, or he should win the Cy Young just because of that.”

Eligible voters likely won’t too much of an emphasis on Ray’s locale, but they will be paying close attention to his stats. He holds the edge over Cole in most of the major categories but there isn’t a lot of breathing room and all it might take is one stellar start from New York’s ace and one bad one from Ray to flip the script entirely.

The same could be said about the Jays’ chances at the wild card. They’re still in a good position to secure one of the two spots, yet there isn’t much margin for error. The loss to Tampa Bay dropped the Jays to 11/2 games back of the Red Sox for the first wild card. Their lead over New York was shaved to just half a game after the Yankees’ 4-3 victory over the Texas Rangers.

With 12 games to play, the race for the Cy Young and the wild card is on. The Jays are the favourites in both, but nothing has been etched in stone quite yet.