Stronghold is key to Liberal fortunes

In contrast to 2019, Doug Ford not a factor in federal campaign

Fortress Ontario appeared to be holding for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals early Monday night.

Canada’s most populous province, which delivered Trudeau a majority government in 2015 and salvaged a Grit minority in 2019, was leaning heavily Liberal in preliminary returns.

With incomplete results due to long lineups at polling stations throughout the Greater Toronto Area because of COVID-19 social distancing protocols, the governing party was leading in 73 of Ontario’s 121 ridings, which account for more than a third of the nation’s 338 constituencies.

Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives were ahead in 32 and the New Democrats in 10 with three per cent of polls reporting at 10:30 p.m. That compares to 79 in the campaign two years ago — when the Conservatives won 36 and the New Democrats six — and 80 in 2015 to 33 for the Tories and eight for the NDP at the time.

In stark contrast to the 2019 election, when Trudeau successfully used Doug Ford as a cudgel against the federal Conservatives — arguing then-Tory leader Andrew Scheer would replicate provincial service cuts nationally — the Progressive Conservative premier was not a factor in the campaign.

Ford and the prime minister worked closely during the pandemic and the premier, who faces voters in the June 2 Ontario election, ordered provincial PC cabinet ministers and senior staff not to get involved in the federal vote.

This despite the fact that O’Toole hails from Durham region and his father, John O’Toole, was a long-time PC MPP with Ford’s father, Doug Ford, Sr. when Mike Harris was premier in the 1990s.

Still, other than shrugging off the campaign as “an unnecessary election” in the fourth wave of COVID-19, the premier did not weigh in.

Trudeau strongly attacked Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe but was more measured on Ford, leaving surrogates to criticize the Ontarian.

Within days of the federal Liberals questioning why Ontario had not unveiled its own proofof-vaccination program, the premier introduced one, which takes effect on Wednesday.

Unlike O’Toole, who refused to disclose how many of his candidates were vaccinated, Ford mandated vaccines for all of his MPPs and ejected veteran Rick Nicholls from caucus for refusing his COVID-19 shot.

Trudeau bolstered his Ontario contingent with the addition of two former top provincial Liberal cabinet ministers on his slate, Michael Coteau in Don Valley East and Yasir Naqvi in Ottawa Centre.

Coteau, who was one of just seven Liberal MPPs to hold his provincial seat in the 2018 Ontario election, led with 58 per cent of the vote in the early returns.

Naqvi had 51.2 per cent of the vote in his riding, which he lost to New Democrat Joel Harden in the last provincial election.

Coteau and Naqvi’s former Ontario cabinet colleagues Helena Jaczek (Markham-Stouffville) and Marie-France Lalonde (Orléans) sit in the federal caucus as do ex-MPPs Han Dong (Don Valley North), Yvan Baker (Etobicoke Centre), and Peter Fonseca (Mississauga East-Cooksville).

Early in the evening, Conservative strategists were still determining the impact of Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada on their fortunes.

As of 10:30 p.m., the PPC was hovering around at almost six per cent of the vote.

“We will be watching that all night,” warned one senior Tory strategist, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations.